Covid-19 - SPECIAL
Interview with
Prof. Dr. med. Dr. PH Timo Ulrichs,
an in Germany leading Epidemiologst, Virologist & Infection Epidemiologist.
We have had the golden opportunity to invite Mr. Prof. Dr. med. Dr. PH Ulrichs for an Interview to Corona - Covid-19.
Meet:
Prof. Dr. med. Dr. PH
Timo Ulrichs
Professor for International Emergency and Disaster Management at the Akkon University of Human Sciences
Timo Ulrichs born 1971 in Fulda, was studying Medicine in Marburg und Berlin and went abroad to France, USA and South America for his practical-work. During his time in South America he developed his interest in Tuberculosis. In Berlin Timo Ulrichs worked in the field of immunological matters of Tuberculosis at the Max-Planck-Institute for Infection Biology. He continued this work as "Postdoc" in Boston and New York. Back in Berlin he worked simultaneously at the MPI and the Charité, where he completed his medical specialist training in Microbiology and Infection Epidemiology. Since 2006 Mr. Ulrichs worked as Expert at the Federal Ministry for Health and was responsible for epidemic control and influenza pandemic planning.
At the same time he graduated as Doctor of Public Health at the faculty of Health Science at the University Bielefeld.
Since 2001 Timo Ulrichs is in duty of scientific Projects in cooperation with Eastern Europe Countries, especially in Russia, Georgia and Republic of Moldau.
These projects have been 2006 the foundation for the founding of the Koch-Metschnikow-Forum (KMF), a non-governmental organization fosters the partnership with Eastern Europe and is nowadays also partner of the Akkon-Univeristy of Human Sciences.
Interview with Mr. Prof. Dr. med Dr. PH Timo Ulrichs
from the 27th March 2020 (*translation)
Corona - Covid-19 pushed us over night basically in a global crisis and in a collective shock. The uncertainty among the people but also companies, despite of hourly updates more or less, is extremely high. It is not just the worry about our health or our life in worst case, it is equally about the economical existence, jobs and the impoverishment. Scenarios about a global break down of the markets, excessive indebtedness, a critical amount of companies shutting down, an exponential increased unemployment rate and low tax income are possible outcomes of a long-lasting Corona-crisis. Already today we hear about personal tragedies, the gap between poor and rich is splitting our society more and more while the middle class is on risk to disappear in total.
Corona is affecting the whole world in multiples ways in an incomparable extent. Very clear becomes now the crisis will continue for longer as just the next 2 months, while recently was published that many small businesses are able to continue with their crisis plans for approx. 4-6 weeks before they have shut down finally. How to “flatten the curve” also when it comes to the economical impact, we would like to discuss with one of the nowadays most popular Epidemiologists & Virologists Prof. Dr. med. Dr. PH Timo Ulrichs. We will talk in a short interview not just about the virus and our personal consternation but also about possible actions, companies can implement, which might help to keep a limited core business going.
Prof. Ulrichs, thank you. We are very glad you accepted our invitation for a short interview especially considering your popularity in media. Thank you very much & welcome.
We focused on 6 questions to keep it short.
Question I:
Many states are introducing different actions and measures of control, and many of us have seen the pictures from Egypt, China, Iran and other countries reporting whole streets have been disinfected by the military, what makes us questioning. There are lots of information circling about the transmission and lifespan of the Corona Virus, so it would be great if you can clarify - for us here finally - the term "droplet infection" and “droplets”.
What do we really have to understand under "droplet infection" and "droplets"?
Prof. Dr. med Dr. PH Ulrichs:
"By sneezing or coughing the virus carrying person sprays out fine droplets from their throat area out into their environment. After a cough, the droplets can remain in the air for a long time, even if the infected person has left the room or area a long time ago (this does not apply outdoors because of air circulation). These droplets can then be inhaled by other people (the smaller the droplets, the deeper it can penetrate into the respiratory tract & lungs) and the virus infect the throat or lung cells and can settle. After an incubation period of several days, the virus cells have multiplied in the new host organism, what can cause illness and/or can be spread by sneezing and coughing.
Disinfection of surfaces indoors or outdoors serves to limit the transmission of the virus by smear infection, means that contaminated surfaces with the virus, able to survive there for quite a long time (up to several days), can then absorbed by the hands. By touching the mucous membranes in the facial area. From there the virus settles and spreads out in the host organism. But this way of transmitting the virus is the less probable as via droplet infection."
Question II: Scenario - When the crisis plan has to become routine.
How do you estimate the probability that the crisis and the acute wave of infection will last longer? For example 6-18 months.
And what can we do, apart from “flatten the curve” & fight the virus, to support the economy by helping small & medium-sized businesses continuing their daily operations – in order to prevent them from shutting down? Keywords like online business, delivery and collection-service come to our minds. Nevertheless, we also have production companies where home office cannot be implemented. We think of air disinfection, protective clothing, shortened working shifts, distance rules, FFP2/FFP3 mask obligation etc.!
Ulrichs:
"The shutdown shall be uphold until we are going to see a clear turning point in the epidemiological figures: a decrease in the number of new infections and a simultaneous significant increase in the number of recoveries, similar to the conditions we currently see in South Korea and China.
This could be achieved by the end of April, but plans must already be made now for the transition period thereafter: Schools must be re-opened and economic sectors must re-continue their operations. Both the absolute "lock down" and the ban of contact could be converted into a daily co-existence under the condition to follow the rules to social distancing and hygienic routine. One option would be to wear protective masks in public, what shall ensure that a virus carrier couldn’t transmit the virus or only to a very limited extent. The protective masks could be simple surgical masks (no FFP2 or -3 masks needed) and should be available to everyone free of charge. The population should be prepared to live and work with these restrictions for the next few months".
Question III:
From your point of view, does it make sense to start or continue with disinfection of production areas and air in, for example, production halls due to an increased number of employees? Would it make sense for an entrepreneur to follow the guidelines for disinfection of the Robert Koch Institute of 2017? (List of disinfectants and disinfection methods tested and approved by the Robert Koch Institut. Status: 31 October 2017)
Ulrichs:
"A surface disinfection at a large scale would be very costly and would not impact the main transmission path of droplet infection (see above). Efforts should rather be invested in protective masks and in a suitable way of handling the virus what allows people, environment and economy to "live"/ survive (see above under 2)."
Question IV:
Can robots and artificial intelligence (AI) be an alternative for human resources (/ "humans") in the crisis intervention, health system or in the general business context – in this particular crisis?
Ulrichs:
"Robots and AI can positively change the Medical Sector a lot, but the immediate utilization in the current crisis is too early. Many concepts are still premature or not fully implemented/transferred into the systems."
Question V:
From your personal perspective what would be a turning point up from which we could globally or nationally take a breath of relief? What would be for you such a significant milestone (positive gateway) or perhaps more than one?
Ulrichs:
"Across Germany, the point would be reached if the newly reported cases of infection are permanently lower than those of the previous day (or weekly) and at the same time the number of those recovering is continuously increasing.Then we will surely stay beyond the limits of our healthcare system
Globally we have to wait for further data and evaluate how the virus spreads in the poor countries like south of the Sahara Desert and in Eastern Asia, especially. The public health systems in those countries are not or only little able to fight the virus with containment strategies or treatment methods.
In case the virus is spreading less in the tropical / subtropical area than it does here during the cold season it would be the moment to have a breath of relief."
Question VI:
To finish up the interview can you perhaps give us 3 shimmer of hope? 3 points for "the good in the bad"...
Ulrichs:
"shimmer of hope 1: The crisis will pass; in round about 1.5 years the whole nightmare and pandemic will be over.
shimmer of hope 2: We are likely to have an effective vaccine by the turn of the year 2020/21, which will speed up the end of the crisis.
shimmer of hope 3: The public health measures during shutdown and afterwards wand bring about extensive control of the virus spread."
Zadkiel C&C says "Thank you"!
We thank you for your time and just can point out again how much blessed we feel you did that interview with us. Thank you also for your enthusiasm, engagement and personal effort in the fight against corona but also other global health threatening sicknesses, globally but also here in Germany. Thanks for your patience in answering our questions but also to answer that open and easy to understand
* translated from German version: Translation can slightly differ from the original text to
ensure comprehensibility